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Alaska Permanent Fund Improves After Money-losing Year But Withdrawals Still Exceed Earnings

Independent analysts say the Permanent Fund's spendable component is shrinking and might be empty within four years since withdrawals have surpassed profits for four of the previous five years.

Sep 28, 2023
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The corporation’s earnings need to average 5% plus the rate of inflation to be sustainable; over the past five years, the corporation hasn’t done that preliminary statistics set to be published at the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp.'s annual meeting this week in Anchorage shows that investment profits again lagged in withdrawals in the year ended June.
The $74.9 billion Alaska Permanent Fund company earned 5.18%, below its 7.97% objective. Since 2018, Alaska's biggest source of general-purpose income has been a yearly Permanent Fund transfer to the state treasury, funding dividends and services.
Investment managers must average 5% plus inflation to maintain that transfer. The fund has returned 7.93% in the five fiscal years after the transfer was incorporated into state law, below the 8.91% aim.
Independent analysts say the Permanent Fund's spendable component is shrinking and might be empty within four years since withdrawals have surpassed profits for four of the previous five years.

The Permanent Fund Corp's Annual Meeting

The Permanent Fund Corp's annual meeting will likely include an analysis. December is the expected release of that analysis. Over the near run, the company performed well. The fund's sixth negative return since 1977 occurred in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2022.
Performance climbed dramatically for the fiscal year ending June 30, but Chief Investment Officer Marcus Frampton said the Permanent Fund missed much of the AI-linked technology market rise.
The S&P 500 index rose 16.9% from Jan. 1 to June 30, but just 10 stocks, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, and Google, accounted for 80% of those gains. Callan, the independent company hired to analyze the Permanent Fund's performance, stated that the S&P's value is more concentrated than since the 1970s.
Callan concluded in slides to be given this week that the Permanent Fund fared similarly or slightly better than average among major endowments nationwide last year, but worse than other large public pension funds.
CalPERS, the biggest public pension fund, finished the fiscal year with 5.8% returns. California has the second-largest teacher retirement fund in the nation, returning 6.3%.
A Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service cited by the Wall Street Journal found a median return of 8.3% for state and local government pension systems nationwide.
This week's annual meeting will cover the APFC's annual budget request, which includes over $750,000 to open a permanent Anchorage office, as well as investment returns and strategic planning.
That office would be the APFC's first satellite location outside Juneau if granted. In the summer, the board of trustees granted temporary office space at the state-leased Cordova Street facility that houses environmental conservation offices.
Budget records show that 11 of the APFC's 67 full-time, year-round jobs are empty, and employees are demanding $700,000 for recruiting and retention increases.
The majority of the APFC's planned $226.8 million budget goes to contract businesses managing corporate investment accounts. The Hilton Anchorage will host the annual gathering from 8:30 a.m. Wednesday through Thursday. Online streaming will accompany the conference.
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